☆ Imagine there's no light rail
Image by Wikimedia Commons
It isn't hard to do. Local tax and transit expert Marc Joffe explores the (now not so fantastical) possibility of a shutdown of VTA, as suggested by many transit riders on local social media in response to transit workers' strike. An Opp Now exclusive.
Opportunity Now: We were pleased to see that VTA is giving out Uber vouchers to riders during the strike. Why don't they just do this all the time?
Marc Joffe: It must have been a difficult decision for VTA to offer these vouchers because it risks cannibalizing their core service: fixed route bus and light rail. They are restricting use of the vouchers to rides that originate and terminate within the vicinity of VTA stations. But some riders may continue to use rideshare for more trips after the strike ends, now that they have had an opportunity to experience some of its benefits.
If the purpose of VTA is to increase the mobility of low-income residents, then vouchers would be preferable to running bus and light rail service in many cases.
ON: Can we do some back-of-the-envelope calculations to figure out what the *real cost* per rider per day is for VTA? What would happen if we just provided that amount as a voucher to riders to take Uber, ride a bike, etc.? Do we even need VTA?
MJ: According to federal data for 2023 (the most recent year available), the operating expense per ride on VTA buses is $15.90, and for VTA light rail it is $29.52. These figures do not include VTA capital expenditures, which are also significant.
VTA costs cannot be fully zeroed out because the Authority has ongoing pension obligations to retirees and current employees who have vested. So even if all service ended immediately, taxpayers would remain on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars in expenses going forward. However, there would be light at the end of the tunnel: annual costs would gradually decline as retirees pass on.
ON: Couldn't we repurpose the VTA cars to be homeless shelters and the VTA property to be homeless relocation centers?
MJ: I doubt whether repurposing to shelters is the highest and best use for VTA vehicles. Selling them or donating them to other providers would be a better option. On the other hand, the Guadalupe Yard off the Nimitz Freeway is quite large (11.8 acres according to Google Gemini) and could be converted into a facility that would offer long-term shelter for homeless individuals like Community First! Village does outside of Austin.
ON: Will this strike likely depress VTA ridership going forward, even if they come to an agreement?
MJ: Now that the strike has lasted so long, riders have become more comfortable with alternatives such as ridesharing, biking, and walking. It is likely that some of those riders will not be coming back once service resumes.
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